Despite major updates coming with Destiny 2‘s The Edge of Fate expansion, new fan analysis shows pre-orders are nearly 50% lower than The Final Shape.
Destiny 2’s next big expansion, Edge of Fate, is just a few weeks away, launching on July 15, 2025. This expansion kicks off the new “Year of Prophecy” and adds some fantastic changes, including the Portal, a new gear tiering system, armor stats overhaul, non-linear campaign, and more. This is also the start of Destiny 2’s new content delivery structure, with a free major update in between each expansion release.
It sounds like a solid step forward on paper, and a lot of longtime players seem genuinely interested in what Edge of Fate has to offer. But many players feel that the excitement around this expansion doesn’t seem to match what we’ve seen in past years.
Now, some new data gives us a clearer picture of just how low the engagement might actually be.
Destiny 2 Edge of Fate Pre-order Data Shows Major Drop
Reddit user Testifye shared a data-driven comparison between pre-orders for Edge of Fate and The Final Shape earlier today, using publicly available stats from Warmind.io, a popular Destiny 2 stat-tracking site. While not official numbers from Bungie, the data offers one of the clearest glimpses at preorder trends we’ve got right now.
To track preorder numbers, Testifye looked at the number of Destiny 2 accounts that have unlocked the unique pre-order emblems tied to each expansion: “External Sights” for Edge of Fate, and “Paracausal Path” for The Final Shape.
Because these emblems are tied directly to purchasing the expansions, they work as a fairly consistent way to monitor preorder interest over time. The Reddit user automated this tracking process and has been collecting data daily since March 2024, storing it in a database.
The comparison focuses on matching timelines, meaning it compares where Edge of Fate is now (about 3 weeks before launch) to where The Final Shape was at that same point before its release. The results aren’t great: Edge of Fate is currently sitting at about 53% of The Final Shape’s preorder count at the same point in time, and if this pace holds, it could finish with nearly 1 million fewer player purchases than The Final Shape.
Here’s a summary of what the analysis shows:
- Edge of Fate preorders are 47% lower than The Final Shape at the same point pre-launch.
- If trends continue, Edge of Fate is on track for around 1.1 million purchases, compared to 2.1 million for The Final Shape in its first month.
- The % comparison (currently 53%) is updated daily to show how EoF is pacing against TFS.
- The analyst automated this tracking process and has been collecting data since March 2024.
Of course, this isn’t a perfect 1:1 representation of Bungie’s actual sales numbers. Emblem unlocks may not capture every purchase, and players may not have acquired the emblems from the Special Deliveries Kiosk yet. Even if it’s not official sales data, it’s still one of the better ways we have to see how interested Destiny 2 players are in the new expansion.
There are a few reasons why Edge of Fate might not be generating the same kind of momentum. The Final Shape was the end of a massive 10-year storyline, a finale that players had been waiting for years. It carried a sense of closure and payoff that naturally drew more attention.
In contrast, Edge of Fate is the start of a brand-new saga, and while that’s exciting in theory, it doesn’t come with the same weight or urgency. On top of that, it’s a smaller expansion by design, closer in scope to something like Rise of Iron, which might make it feel less essential compared to previous releases.
And of course, there’s the bigger picture: trust in Bungie has taken a hit over the past year or so, especially after the major layoffs, the cancellation of other projects, and the absence of any sign that Destiny 3, which many players were hoping for, is even in development.
Destiny 2 Edge of Fate Weekly Sales on Steam
If you need more signs that Edge of Fate might be underperforming, just look at Steam’s weekly top sellers list.
Between April 9 and May 7, 2024 (as well as the following weeks up until the launch of The Final Shape), Destiny 2 showed up in Steam’s Top 20 best-selling games every single week. Now, comparing that to the same window for Edge of Fate, from May 20 to June 24, the game hasn’t made the Top 20 at all.
Just last week, Destiny 2 was sitting all the way down at #65 on Steam’s weekly top sellers list. That’s a pretty noticeable drop.
Just this week, Bungie held a developer livestream for Edge of Fate, where it went over pretty much all the same things already revealed during preview events and content creator coverage (except for a thing or two – new weapon type!). That led to a lot of backlash from fans, who were expecting new information and reveals.
Are you excited for Edge of Fate? Or do you feel like something’s missing compared to past expansions? Let us know your thoughts below.
